Is peak season almost over?
Already?
We’re used to peak season lasting roughly from July through September, but some unusual dynamics this year suggest peak season might be wrapping up early – and that might present some interesting opportunities for shippers.
Chance Pope, Director of Operations at Bestway International, sees the timing of 2026 peak season moving in some unusual directions, and wants shippers to understand what this could mean for them.
Here’s what’s happening:
It appears that in 2026, Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) planned ahead more than in most previous years (other than 2025) and front-loaded – thus starting much of the ocean shipping activity earlier than usual. If that’s the case, then we would likely see activity slow down a bit in August.
Does the market see that coming? Possibly, according to some leading indicators. There have been no general rate increases or peak season surcharges announced for the back half of July. When strong demand continues, we usually see both.
What’s more, the imminent expiration of Section 122 tariffs seems to also be accelerating shipping activity, as most people believe more tariffs will be announced, and no one knows what those might consist of.
An early end to peak season – if activity really drops off – could hold serious rewards for shippers who didn’t frontload.
“All of this seems to have pushed forward much of the shipping activity,” Chance said. “So if you’re one of those who waited, there might be some benefit in sitting on your cargo shipments for the moment to see what happens.”
The possible advantages are numerous.
“Consider what the market could look like in the second half of Q3 if activity slows down as economic indicators seem to suggest it could,” Chance said. “In addition to lower rates, carriers will likely have more space, meaning quicker turn times from cargo readiness to actual sailing. Not only that, but less volume means less port congestion, so you’re less likely to end up dealing with detention issues or demurrage fees. And with truckers not as busy, they’re not waiting until the last possible day to grab containers.”
But understand, the quick announcement of new tariffs could throw all this into question, especially if there is no grace period.
“There’s a real likelihood that tariffs are announced, and then everyone that didn’t ship or has been just shipping normally would say, ‘Oh shoot, I need to ship everything I can as quick as I can,’” Chance said.
One possibility is that we will not see a dramatic drop-off from a heavy-but-early peak season to an extremely slow season.
“There are a lot of signs out there that the end of peak season will come earlier,” Chance said. “But it’s also possible that we could get a middle of the road between a peak season and a slack season, where you still have elevated volumes but not what we’ve seen the last two months.”
That last scenario might track with the recent announcement by The National Retail Federation that it has increased its forecast sales growth, and that its headline sales are holding up so far even as the underlying picture weakens.
For shippers who don’t absolutely need to ship a product right away, it might make sense to hold off and see what happens. But don’t let yourself be completely blindsided by the announcement of new tariffs. That’s a strong possibility, so factor it into your planning.
